On August 29, the DPJ elected Noda in the run off vote. Noda will be its fourth leader since early 2009. In Japan, the Lower House of the Diet--called Shuugiin--has the prerogative to choose Prime Ministers. given the DPJ's majority in the Lower House, Noda becomes Japan's 6th Prime Minister in five years.
Ichiro Ozawa's group supported Kaieda in the race. Kaieda's loss to Noda thus could be interpreted as Ozawa's loss. This seems to be the standard view both in Japan and abroad.
That view is wrong.
Ozawa had no dog in the race. His least favorite was Maehara, a slimy character. Even before Kan decided to step down, the Japanese mainstream media had been drumming up support for Maehara and Noda. It thus seemed to everyone's eyes that the fight would be between Noda and Maehara. We can thus speculate that Ozawa sought Maehara's demise. In fact, Ozawa group's support for Kaieda ensured that Noda and Kaieda be the top two going into the run off election leaving Maehara a distant third. Although Kaieda came at the top in the first round of votes--thanks to Ozawa group's support-- Ozawa did not instruct his followers whom to vote for in the second round.
Noda won the second round with a relatively small margin. He will be forced to form a Cabinet that's more inclusive--unlike Kan's government or what the Maehara govt would have been. Seen this way, Ozawa has gained more than lost. Also note that Noda only serves out Kan's remaining term. This means that he will be up for reelection in Sep 2012. If I were him I wouldn't make enemy of Ozawa.
Maehara's dismal performance may well kill his future bid for the leadership position.
How well will Noda do? Will he become the new real leader of DPJ? How will DPJ fare in the 2013 Lower House election? Too early to say. Yet ultimately it will come down to the media's perception of DPJ's performance .
How well will Noda do? Will he become the new real leader of DPJ? How will DPJ fare in the 2013 Lower House election? Too early to say. Yet ultimately it will come down to the media's perception of DPJ's performance .
The Japanese media loathes Ozawa because he tried to end their information cartel (Japanese TV stations and major newspapers are all cross-owned, and form exclusive clubs that work very closely with govt ministries). Foreign correspondents have been all too naive to adopt their Japanese colleagues' view of Ozawa without appreciating the real background.
Ironically, the more serious a politician is about reforming Japan, the more fiercely the media (and the rest of the establishment) attacks. In other words, a lukewarm non-reformist stance will be more welcomed by the media. The establishment loves patsies. Noda's strategic choice will be a lukewarm non-reformist, pro-bureaucratic government. In this sense, Noda's strategy is no different from Kan-Sengoku's strategy.
Conclusion: No political change in Japan for another year.
